Inflection Points

We are at inflection points in many different areas of technology and society today. Here are some examples:

• Physiology: There are dramatic changes going on in our understanding of physiology and how it works all the way down at the molecular level up to the larger whole body mind issues.
• Cognology: There's a great deal of understanding in cognology, that is the study of cognitive systems, of people through things like functional MRIs for example, and so forth.
• Sociology: Unlike many years ago when there were a couple of newspapers and perhaps a couple of TV channels, we now have an enormous capacity to study and affect sociology across mass populations.
• Computational capacity: Our computational capacity is continuing to expand to the point where we have enormous capacity to do things, way more than certainly I anticipated would continue under Moore's law, which should have ended some years ago except we kept developing new things.
• Content capacity: The amount of content we now have stored and available for use is something like the history of everything in humanity. It's pretty darn close with all the videos and all the written works essentially all available online.
• Manufacturing: The ability to produce things with engineering is stunningly changing with the ability to do additive and subtractive manufacturing including nano-manufacturing and production of nano-mechanisms and so forth.

The list goes on, but this article does not... A key issue is our willingness to proceed. Are we going to continue expanding all of these things at pace or to the extent that we can?

A change in amount → a change in kind

A change in amount can produce a change in kind. And that's what we're starting to see. We're starting to see a change in kind that's reflective of the vastness of the change in amount. Now, integrating across these things, there are all sorts of things we can think and do that were not feasible outside of the world of science fiction before. And frankly, even science fiction can no longer keep up.

The change in kind is already underway at this scale, and increased scaling is almost certain in most of these areas. The change in kind, however, does not mean that we will be guaranteed of the Star Trek future in our lifetimes. The achievement of human quality intelligence by AI is not the definitive short-term outcome of modern generative AI any more than complete elimination of all disease is the short-term outcome of breakthroughs in biology. But to quote the Beatles, "I've got to admit it's getting better - a little better all the time...". But 'better' for whom?

Star Trek or Star Wars?

Which brings us to what 'better' will bring. The Star Trek version is a positive spin on the advancement of science, art, and humanity, and all of the things we generally think of as better in the world. But the advancement of technology does not mean it will be applied to lift all boats.

Star wars is about, among other things, the dominance of the rich and powerful over the poor through the leverage of technology. We know that many people put their search for power and money over the well being of others. In fact, at some point, we all probably do. But as technology makes us more capable, what will we pursue? Not just as individuals, but as companies, and as nation states.

This is about your vision for the future of your company and how it fits into your view of yourself in the emergence of possibilities beyond what anyone could hope to achieve 100 years ago. What is the future of the world you see yourself in, and how will your company help to reach that future?

Then what?

Once your vision comes into focus, your develop strategies for achieving your part of the overall vision of the world as it emerges. Then it's time to develop tactics to implement those strategies that get adapted based on performance metrics, and principals that bound your path forward to constrain what you are willing to do to move the world toward that vision.

• Strategy: Generally, strategy does not change very often, and if/when it does, it is called a pivot. There is nothing wrong with one or two major pivots over a few years, but it means your efforts to find your audience and your fit to it have failed. It is the result of wasted time, money, and effort on something that you now believe will not work or will not work well enough. It means you are no longer doing what you promised everyone you were trying to do, and often it changes the vision and creates incompatibility with what you sold everyone on when you started out.
• Tactics: Tactics on the other hand, change all the time, to adapt to changing conditions. For example, you might change your approach to communications, your placement, your technology licenses, your suppliers, customer segments, locations, team members, and on and on. This merely represents the proper application of feedback from experience. Many folks do this by a sense of feeling. They think it is not going as well as they would like and sense that people are talking about different things in different ways, so they make changes.
• Metrics: The sense of feelings for changes in tactics are fine, but almost always these represent or can be observed by measurable quantities. That's where metrics come into play. Real world observables are always retrospective, but projective metrics are far more helpful for making tactical changes. Projective metrics enable simulation or calculation of futures base don historicals. For example, by using a sales sieve and measuring performance of each step, an ongoing projection of future actual sales and related costs can be calculated before getting to the end of the sieve. In this way a plan can be tested to see if it is working before getting tot he end of it, and it can be adapted to meet desired projections sooner and at lower cost.
• Principles: These should never change. They are core beliefs that limit you and your company. If you have no principles, you will do anything and as a result, you cannot be trusted. The trust placed in you by your investors, advisors, workers, customers, and suppliers are foundational to your success. Without them, you will be recognized as an exploitive taker. That does not mean you will not succeed, but it means that you will always succeed because of leverage you have over others and you willingness to use it regardless of who is hurt.

What is my vision is not that grand?

Not all visions are revolutionary. And not all of them contemplate dramatic changes in kind of the way the world works. Not all of them depend on dramatic changes in technology or social norms. But if your company is to scale to a major enterprise, unless you have enormous resources available, you better have a vision that relies on something changing and you riding the wave of that change.

Conclusions

We are at many inflections points in technology and society, which means there are tremendous opportunities for change and growth.

You need a solid vision and ability to execute on it in order to take advantage of these changes.

More information?

Join our monthly free advisory call, usually at 0900 Pacific time on the 1st Thursday of the month, to discuss your vision and how you hope to help achieve it through your company and your efforts.

and we will be happy to discuss it.

In summary

Vision into a desired future and taking advantage of the massive changes underway is key to success. Let's help each other succeed in these changing times.