Running out of time

It's hard to keep a grip on the importance of time in running companies. There are so many things to do in a day, week, month, and year, that time keeps in slippin', slippin', slippin', into the future...

As the most precious resource any of us have in our lived, time in terms of a business is also about cash flow. We take risks by spending money to make money. The challenge is deciding when to mitigate those risks by reducing spending. For large entities, there are annual budgets that they keep to - or not - and possibly adapt quarterly. But for small entities, and especially micro-entities, cash flow is usually in the high intensity zone. And that's because of time.

How long it takes vs. how long you have

When I played Ultimate Frisbee back in the day, we had one game in the regional championships when we were behind as time ran out, and we were outscoring the other team. We lost by a goal when time ran out. One of the folks on our team said, "We didn't lose, we just ran out of time". It felt a bit better perhaps, but we lost. Crap!

In business, the time comes when you have to walk away from things you have been working on for a long time. As the time approaches, there is a tendency to want to hold on, to push it over the line, to go for broke. And we hear stories of some very successful people who did this and it turned out to be their big break. But mostly, that's not the case. We suffer from the lack of stories of the ones that didn't make it. And that's most of them.

Didn't make it - this year.

This year, among the things / companies / attempts that failed in our ecosystem, we have the following (at least). Note that some are the walking dead - technically still going, but just delaying the inevitable. I hope we can all learn from my mistakes...

• The 3rd time is the charm: This was actually the 3rd time we tried more or less the same thing. We changed people, augmented technology, changed the marketing approach and presence, regiggered the customer base, and tried yet again to get a fit. But it was a no-go. I have no idea of why it didn't succeed, other than a lack of resources. Which is to say - not enough money to keep throwing at the problem. But the reason it is in moth balls awaiting the next foolish try is likely not running out of money - it's likely that the time it would take to succeed at some level would take more time and effort than the value it would bring.
• At some point we expire: Another one of our CEOs died before achieving "success". This is 2 in 3 years - both in November - both completely unexpected - both active and healthy. It's hard to express the feelings not yet revealed about this other than to say that my time is coming at some point as well. They didn't lose - they just ran out of time.
• All of our babies are not beautiful: Emotional attachment to our companies is perhaps inherent in what it takes to be a CEO. But failure to recognize faults and repair them because of emotional connection is a disease that is hard to cure, even when diagnosed. "We advise, you decide." That means we may tell you your baby is ugly, and even how to make it beautiful, but you have to act on it. Two of our CEOs still don't recognize the problem, even after they were told, showed, and suffered the consequences. In one case they are still suffering, seeking to recover some of the sunk cost and residual value. It's tough.

There are a few more, but they mostly went as a whimper rather than a crash.

However... some are going strong

When you speak of endings you should also speak of new beginnings. In a sense that's what a new year is all about. We had some really good news along the way, and tracking that is important to recognition.

• Pivot to heaven: One of our longstanding portfolio companies made a pivot some years ago. When I say pivot in this case, you should think in terms of an Olympic skater doing a wild spin and pulling their arms in. The current direction is almost unrelated to the original one, and the growth has been astonishing. It looks like an exit is on the horizon and they are working towards it. In my case the return at the current valuation is something like 400x, and I expect it to double again before actual exit in a year or so.
• The long and winding road: A more recent company we got involved in about a year after start is now expanding sales, trying to accelerate, and while it it not yet a rocket, it is almost certain to be a strong success and start returning long-term dividends in excess of original investments in another year - or doubling down on growth... The CEO in this case has been in business for almost 50 years, and decided to start this new business with a brilliant concept that is one of those "why didn't I think of that" things. Go man go!
• After years of trying: One of our portfolio companies has been seeking funding for growth for about 5 years. Persistence pays, and in this case, the business has not pivoted or changed its target market or its approach. They just kept on trying and managed to do it without running out of cash by the strong effort and willingness to take it by the CEO. Finally, this year, they got some serious funding that I think will give them a good chance of reaching cash flow positive in the next year.

And there's always hope - usually

I sometimes flip between despair and hope but so far, I always come back to hope. Recognizing that life is "strikes and gutters", so is business. Some things work and others do not. Somethings are right but never work, and I continue to tilt at those windmills, knowing full well that it's unlikely to change the world for the better, but compelled to keep trying. Here are my priorities:

• You cannot win, but you must not lose: I believe we are in an eternal battle between those who would dominate us and our own freedom. Today that battle is taking shape in the arena of social influence and disinformation. The odds are seemingly against freedom, not because people do not wish to be free, but because people choose comfort over struggle, until they find their comfort was just a ruse. The hope is that new companies will continue to emerge to fight the good fight and defeat disinformation with facts and evidence. Two of our startups today, and more coming in the new year will seek to fight this good fight, and make money while doing it so the fight can be sustained over time.
• Live long and prosper: The health, wellness, environment, longevity, happiness, fun, education, and entertainment sector (I think of it all as one thing) is producing a vast array of improvements to our lives, and I want to continue to support it. This as opposed to the vice squad bringing us new addictive drugs, methods of gambling, frauds, exploitation, and so forth, which I also consider to be a single sector (the exploitation sector), which I do not wish to support, even though it likely makes more money. I will risk lower profits in exchange for making things better - lifting all boats.
• Rest in peace: And by this I do not mean the end of life. Rather the ability to sleep well knowing you and those you love are safe, even if it's at best only partly true... That is the so-called security sector. I have a long career in this sector, and I consider it to include making sensible laws and enforcing them, but also national security, personal security, home security, safety, resource safety (food, water, air, etc), and a wide range of related areas.

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In summary

It's tough out there, but it can also be rewarding. Focus on what's important to you.